Monday, September 3, 2012

The current situation in Syria

"We believe that the USA is the major player against Syria and the rest are its instruments" (the Syrian ambassador the the UN), is not terribly exaggerated. This is a very good article, certainly, there are two great lines: 1) The internal opposition to dictatorial rule within Syria, mostly by students, intellectuals, middle-class and then also impoverished rural population. 2) Regional and geopolitical interests: Saudi-Arabia etc. intend to establish a Sunni regime. Fighters from other Muslim countries are not there to fight a dictatorship, but to establish Sunni rule, probably one that will have at best a slight semblance of democracy, maybe not even that. The US is happily supporting that purpose (cf. the rhetoric of Mrs Clinton, most 'think tanks' who 'predicted' a 'Sunni' change of power. In fact, this was never an analysis of the situation but a statement of intent, a self-fulfilling prophecy). It's of great strategic value for US and their regional allies: The 'axis' Iran - Syria - Hizbollah will be splintered, the last non-cooperative country west of Iraq will have a more compliant government, or, at least, it will be reduced to rubble, rendering it largely insignificant for decades to come. Such a change would also very much play into the hands of the Gulf autocracies, major allies of the US. It also breaks China's and especially Russia's influence in the region. E.g. Russia has a marine base in Syria, the only one in the Mediterranean, a thorn in America's flesh. In Lybia and other parts of Africa, China's assets have been ousted, the same goes for Russia in Syria. After the fall of Syria, in essence, only Iran will be left. Already Israeli hawks are more than itching to strike... but perhaps, it will not be necessary anymore, after Syria has been 'done in'. Still, the lust for conquest seems unsatiable. Will Russia and China eventually draw a red line? Or will some colossal collapse deny further expansion? Time will tell... . So, what should we do? For Europe, it is time to engage in serious political talks and actions with the aim of stopping the Syrian war at once and to bring parties to the negotiating table.
Another aspect of the conflict is, of course, the question of what will happen with Syriac in the long run. As stated above, Syria, that can already be seen, will be a devastated country for years and years to come. But what about its future as a nation? What about internal cohesion? There is, apparently, a very real chance of a kurdish breakaway in the North-East of the country. Maybe, the  borders of the Middle East are about to be redrawn...